Thursday night, 10:43 PM. I pulled up our Rakuten Securities balance: ¥42 million. Fifty-eight percent of my original ¥100M FIRE target. My first instinct was to open the compound interest calculator and figure out how many more years until ¥100M.

Then Lily wandered downstairs. She's seven now. Couldn't sleep. "Papa, what are you doing?"

"Looking at our savings," I said.

She climbed into my lap and looked at the screen. "Is that a lot?"

"It's enough for us to be okay," I said.

"So you don't have to work anymore?"

I didn't know how to answer. The math said we needed ¥72 million (after pension integration from Part 2). We had ¥42M. At our ¥2.1M annual savings rate, we'd hit ¥72M in about 11-12 years when I'm 41-42. Add safety margin to ¥80M for 10% buffer, maybe 13-14 years when I'm 43-44.

But my brain kept calculating: What if we aim for ¥100M? That's 20 years. Lily would be 27.

Her question echoed: "So you don't have to work anymore?"

My wife appeared in the doorway. "Lily, back to bed." Then to me, after Lily left: "When do we actually pull the trigger? You said ¥100M. Then you recalculated to ¥72M. Now you're talking about ¥80M for a buffer. When does the number stop moving?"

I closed my laptop. That question would unravel everything I thought I understood about "enough."

In Part 1, I explained why safe withdrawal rates should be 3.5%, not 4%. Sequence of returns risk means you need 28.6x expenses, not 25x. With ¥4M annual spending, that's ¥114M without pension.

In Part 2, I showed how Japanese pensions (Kokumin + Kosei Nenkin) change everything. Our combined pension projection is ¥2.95M starting at age 65. That cuts our gap to ¥1.05M per year. At 3.5% withdrawal, we need ¥30M at age 65, plus ¥42M to bridge ages 44-65. Total: ¥72M.

The math is clear. ¥72M is enough.

So why does "one more year" feel safer?

I found my answer in a blog post by Physician on FIRE. He calls it "One More Year Syndrome." The compulsion to keep working after you've hit your financial independence number. Just one more year for extra buffer. One more year because the market's uncertain. One more year because what if pension benefits get cut.

The dangerous part? One year becomes two. Two becomes five. Five becomes ten. Morgan Housel wrote in The Psychology of Money: "The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving."

I'd been doing exactly that. Started with ¥100M. Recalculated to ¥72M. Then thought: "What if we aim for ¥80M for a 10% buffer?" Then: "Actually, ¥86M for 20% buffer would be safer." Before I knew it, I was back at ¥100M, rationalized as "prudent given pension uncertainty."

My wife saw what I couldn't. She named it that Thursday night: "You're using math to justify fear."

Here's the math I didn't want to calculate:

At our current savings rate of ¥2.1M per year with 5% returns, working from ¥42M to different buffer tiers costs:

Each additional buffer tier costs about 3-4 years of working life. That's 780-1,040 mornings commuting on the Yamanote Line instead of walking Lily to school. That's 156-208 international school pickups someone else handles. That's entire phases of childhood we don't get back.

I read Bill Perkins' book Die with Zero last month. He introduces a concept called "memory dividends." Experiences compound like investments, but only through memory. A family trip to Italy at age 40 pays dividends for 50+ years of remembering. The same trip at age 70 pays only 20 years of dividends.

The earlier you invest in experiences, the more return you collect.

Perkins argues most people die with 88% of their retirement savings unspent. One-third of retirees actually INCREASE wealth during retirement. We over-save and under-live.

His question haunts me: "What if the real risk isn't running out of money? What if the real risk is running out of time?"

I did the memory dividend calculation for our family:

If we FIRE at ¥72M when I'm 41-42 (Lily age 18-19), we get her transition to adulthood. University decisions. First real independence. Critical years.

If we wait for ¥100M when I'm 50 (Lily age 27), we've missed her entire childhood. She's an adult. Living her own life. The experiences we could have shared are gone. No amount of money brings them back.

The ¥28M difference between ¥72M and ¥100M isn't just money. It's 8-9 years of Lily's formative years. It's 2,080-2,340 afternoons. It's memory dividends we'll never collect.

But here's what kept me awake that Thursday night: Japan has real pension uncertainty.

The government could reduce benefits. They've already raised the full pension age from 60 to 65 over recent decades. What if they cut benefit amounts by 20%? By 30%? Our ¥2.95M household pension becomes ¥2.06M. Our gap becomes ¥1.94M instead of ¥1.05M. We'd need ¥55M at age 65 instead of ¥30M.

That uncertainty drives the "one more year" instinct. It feels responsible. It feels like prudent financial planning.

Every uncertainty became justification for "one more year." Pension cuts. Healthcare costs. Market crashes. Inflation surprises.

The question isn't whether these risks exist. They do. The question is: Which buffer tier addresses real risk, and which buffer tier is just fear?

That Friday morning over coffee, my wife and I ran through three scenarios:

Scenario A: ¥72M (0% buffer, base target)

Scenario B: ¥80M (10% buffer)

Scenario C: ¥86M (20% buffer)

My wife's question: "Which number lets you spend afternoons with your daugther"

Not "which number is safest." Not "which number protects against all uncertainty." But: Which number gives us the life we've been saving FOR?

Scenario B. ¥80M. Ten percent buffer above our pension-integrated target.

It handles the real Japan-specific risks: modest pension benefit reductions, inflation surprises. It gives us a cushion without turning FIRE into a 20-year delayed fantasy.

And critically: Lily is 20-21 when we FIRE. Still in university. Still living at home during breaks. Still part of daily life. We don't miss her entire childhood chasing perfect financial certainty.

If the government cuts pensions 30%? We reduce spending from ¥4M to ¥3.2M. We take on part-time consulting work earning ¥1M per year. We adapt. But we don't delay freedom by a decade for a 30% pension cut that might never happen.

Choosing ¥80M doesn't end the "one more year" temptation. That voice never fully goes away. So we built guard rails to keep the goalpost from moving again:

Guard Rail 1: Trigger Set in Stone

At ¥80M, we retire regardless of market conditions. Not "¥80M and wait for a bull market." Not "¥80M and one more year to be safe." We execute.

Guard Rail 2: Flex Spending During Drawdown

If we retire into a market crash, we cut spending 20% (¥4M to ¥3.2M) for the first 3-5 years. This protects against sequence of returns risk without delaying FIRE.

Guard Rail 3: Part-Time Work Option

If markets crash hard and stay down, I can teach English part-time or consult, earning ¥1-2M per year. This reduces portfolio withdrawal stress without returning to full-time employment.

Guard Rail 4: No Goalpost Adjustments

We don't recalculate the target when we're at ¥70M or ¥75M. No "actually maybe ¥86M would be better." The number is set. We trust our math.

Guard Rail 5: Annual Lily-Age Review

Every year, we write down Lily's current age and what we'd miss if we delay FIRE another year. This keeps the real cost visible. It's not abstract "time." It's specific: missing her age 14, 15, 16.

These guard rails transform "enough" from a moving target into a commitment. They separate prudent planning from fear-driven delay.

If you're early in your Japan FIRE journey, here's what I wish someone had told me:

Calculate your pension-integrated target first. Use Nenkin Net. Add Kokumin and Kosei Nenkin for you AND your spouse. Subtract from annual expenses. Divide gap by 0.0325. Add 10-20% buffer. That's your number.

Then ask: At what age will I hit that number? How old will my children be? What will I miss by adding "one more year"?

The math gives you the target. The family context tells you when to pull the trigger.

Don't optimize for maximum financial security. Optimize for maximum life lived.

"Enough" isn't the minimum you can survive on. But it's also not "so much that all uncertainty disappears." Enough is: the math works, the risks are manageable, and waiting longer costs more than it protects.

For us, that's ¥85M. For you, it might be different. Check YOUR Nenkin Net numbers. Calculate YOUR scenarios. Map YOUR children's ages to YOUR timeline.

Then set the trigger and commit to it.

That Thursday night when Lily asked "So you don't have to work anymore?", I didn't have an answer. Now I do.

At ¥80M, I don't have to work anymore. Not because the number is perfect. Not because all uncertainty is eliminated. But because the math works, the buffer handles real risks, and waiting longer costs memory dividends we'll never get back.

The impact of choosing ¥80M over ¥100M: We FIRE when Lily is 20-21 instead of 27. We get her university years, her early twenties, the transition to adulthood. We don't trade 6-7 years of her life for an extra ¥20M we probably won't need.

That's not recklessness. That's recognizing that "enough-plus-buffer" is genuinely enough. The rest is fear dressed up as prudence.

Your move.

Disclaimer: This newsletter shares my personal financial journey and research for educational purposes only. I'm not a licensed financial advisor. The calculations and frameworks I share are based on my interpretation of publicly available research and my own situation in Japan. Your situation is different. Before making major financial decisions, consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor familiar with Japanese tax and pension systems. Pension projections are subject to change by government policy. All investing involves risk.

Stay Wealthy

Jason

Building wealth for English-speaking permanent residents in Japan, one story at a time.

P.S.

If you're struggling with "one more year" syndrome, I recommend Bill Perkins' Die with Zero. The memory dividend concept reframes wealth building from "maximize net worth" to "maximize net fulfillment." It's the counterbalance FIRE blogs don't provide.